Statesboro, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

347
FXUS62 KCHS 061013
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
613 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern continues as multiple frontal boundaries
and disturbances impact the region. A few storms may become
strong to severe severe this weekend, with damaging winds
expected to be the primary hazard. A brief reprieve in heat
then returns early next week in the wake of a strong cold
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major changes were needed for the sunrise update.

Through This Evening: A more typical summertime environment will
become established across the region today as subtropical ridging
centered over South Texas builds east. The low-level flow will
remain somewhat westerly today in the wake of low pressure
exiting the Outer Banks and given the orientation of the ridge
aloft. Modified RAP soundings do show modest to locally strong
mixed-layer instability developing during the afternoon (MLCAPE
values 2000-2500 J/kg) as highs warm to near 90, but the mean
lower tropospheric flow is forecast to remain westerly for much
of the day, only backing at the surface closer to the coast during
the late afternoon as a pinned sea breeze circulation tries to
form. This will limit low-level convergence at first with
convection being mostly forced by strong surface heating. Once
isolated showers/tstms form, there is a potential for additional
convection to pop as corridors of convergence concentrate along
convective outflows and possible collisions. The sea breeze may
play a factor late as showers/tstms try to work closer to the
immediate coast, but the CAMs are not overly excited about this
scenario suggesting even convergence along the sea breeze itself
could remain fairly weak. 850 hPa theta-e values look highest
in a west-east oriented ribbon south of I-16 and this is where
the best coverage of showers/tstms are expected to occur. Pops
20-40% were highlighted this afternoon into early this evening,
highest south of I-16. Convection will wind down quickly this
evening with the onset of nocturnal stabilization.

The mid-levels have dried out considerably since yesterday.
Soundings support DCAPE values peaking ~1000 J/kg by mid-late
afternoon. This could support an isolated severe tstm or two
with damaging winds and cloud-to-ground lightning being the
primary hazards. Some small hail could develop with WBZ heights
just below 12 kft, but the strong surface heating will tend to
melt hail as it falls and likely keeping it below 1". Weak
0-6km bulk shear suggests any severe tstms will be pulse in
nature with possibly some brief, transient organization
occurring at times where updrafts become enhanced where
convective outflows collide.

Overnight: Dry conditions will prevail. There are indications
that a cluster of showers/tstms with origins from northern
Georgia could make a run for far interior Southeast Georgia
after midnight. Most of this activity should dissipate prior to
reaching this far the east and southeast, but this will have to
watched closely. For now, no mentionable pops were included for
the overnight period. It will be rather warm for early June with
lows only dropping into the lower 70s well inland to around 80
at the beaches and Downtown Charleston--more typical of deep
summer. These lows could challenge the record high minimums for
7 June, especially at the Charleston Intl Airport (KCHS) and
Downtown Charleston/Waterfront Park (KCXM). See the climate
section below for additional information.

It should be noted that the unusually warm temperatures tonight
yield a MAJOR (level 3/red) heat risk for parts of the coast,
including portions of both the Charleston and Savannah Metro
Areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Balmy conditions will prevail this weekend, as afternoon highs
rise into the lower 90s in combination with dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s. As a result, expect heat indices to rise into the
upper 90s to lower 100s, the warmest along and east of I-95.
While not uncommon for this of year, still encourage everyone to
remain hydrated and take breaks or rest in the shade as needed.
Given the moist environment and diurnal heating expected to
take place, can`t rule out seeing afternoon/evening showers and
storms.

In regard to the severe potential, latest soundings for
Saturday do show ample CAPE (~1000 to 2000 J/kg), 0-6km bulk
shear around 25 to 30 kt, and DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Lapse
rates remain rather meager though, with values around 6 - 7
degC/km in the low to mid levels. Thus, with these values in
place, could certainly see a few storms capable of producing
damaging gusts. Main caveat to this is timing. Latest CAMs show
a MCS progged to push across the TN Valley Saturday evening,
perhaps reaching our area near/after 00z. Not entirely confident
if this system will be able to sustain itself, as some guidance
hints that it will fizzle out before reaching our area. In the
event that it does reach us, this would place the main line of
storms in an environment with weakening instability/shear as the
diurnal heat source wanes.

Dependent on how things pan out, could see some lingering
convection by daybreak Sunday. This would put a slight damper on
additional development later that afternoon as the atmosphere
works to stabilize itself. However, if the MCS fizzles out
before reaching us Saturday night, think the better chance for
seeing severe weather would occur Sunday afternoon/evening as a
similar environment unfolds. Otherwise, look for upper level
troughing across the Ohio River Valley to deepen Monday as an
upper level low build over the Great Lakes region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect the aforementioned upper level trough to push eastward
Monday night into Tuesday, bringing with it renewed chances for
precipitation. Afternoon highs will also be somewhat "cooler" in
the wake of its associated sfc cold front. Currently have
temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s for the
remainder of the extended period. A typical diurnal summertime
pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms will also
continue during this time as the seabreeze pushes inland.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06/12z Aviation Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Low clouds at KCHS and KJZI will mix out quickly
as sunset approaches. Isolated to scattered showers/tstms are
expected to form as early as late morning and continuing into
the afternoon hours. Coverage looks greatest over Southeast
Georgia, but much of this may stay south of KSAV. For now, VCTS
was highlighted 17-20z. For KCHS and KJZI, coverage looks to
remain a bit more isolated so impact probabilities look too low
to justly a mention at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Typical summertime convection will
bring periodic flight restrictions through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: West winds will back to the southwest later
this afternoon as pinned sea breeze develops along the beaches.
Some slight surging near the sea breeze along the land/sea
interface and in Charleston Harbor could occur late, but winds
should go no higher than 15 kt. Otherwise, winds will average
10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 2-3 ft. Tonight, southwest winds
10-15 kt will prevail with seas 2-3 ft.

Saturday through Monday: Expect west south-westerly winds to
prevail throughout the period, with sustained speeds between 10
to 20 kt. Winds could become a bit breezy at times, especially
over the weekend, with gusts up to 25 kt possible as the sea
breeze moves inland. While SCA are not expected at this time,
will continue to monitor the Charleston County coastal waters,
including the Charleston Harbor in the event that guidance
increases or actual winds over perform. Otherwise, look for seas
to range between 2 to 4 ft throughout the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 7:
KCHS: 75/2021
KCXM: 79/2021

June 8:
KCHS: 76/1980
KCXM: 78/2021
KSAV: 79/1881

June 9:
KCHS: 77/1978
KSAV: 77/1877

June 11:
KCHS: 76/2020
KSAV: 76/2010

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$